A Pivotal moment – Reilly Out Harris In

A Pivotal moment – Reilly Out Harris In

It has been a pivotal moment in 2019 CFL Free Agency. Mike Reilly OUT and Trevor Harris IN for Edmonton.

A game of numbers

Building a statistical average and looking at former Edmonton Eskimo Quarterback Mike Reilly and his production over two seasons will give us a baseline to compare the incoming QB.

We already know that free agency has changed the CFL landscape. Two key changes focus around the change in Pivot in Edmonton from Mike Reilly to Trevor Harris.

2017 and 2018 Regular Season – Mike Reilly in Edmonton

A total of 36 games played. Call him “Iron Man” for staying healthy two full seasons and giving his team a steady pivot and game plan for 36 games straight.

Passing Yards average over two years = 316.4 Yards Per Game with 13.1 Yards per Completion production

Touchdown Production = 30 Touchdown passes per season

The Legs of Mike Reilly – they move and so do the yardsticks

Over two seasons Mike Reilly managed to run the ball an average 27 Yards Rushing per game

2017 and 2018 Regular Season – Trevor Harris in Ottawa

A total of 32 games played.

Passing Yards average over two years = 306 Yards Per Game with 11.8 Yards per Completion Production

Touchdown Production = 26 Touchdown passes per season

The Legs of Trevor Harris – He is a statue. His feet, for the most part, are in cement

Over two seasons Trevor Harris managed to move the ball an average 6 Yards Rushing per game.

The Breakdown –

Where Trevor Harris can’t catch Mike Reilly is clearly scrambling out of the pocket.  Outside of this stat alone, they are on equal footing for the most part.  Where Harris has a slight statistical advantage is putting the ball in the hands of his receivers. Just under a 2 point advantage.  Harris had some stellar games with high percentage completion rates. 

Completion Percentage 2017 and 2018 Year review

Trevor Harris – 69.85% completion rate

Mike Reilly – 68.0% completion rate

If you happen to be an Ottawa Redblacks fan reading this; that is the statistical vacuum of production that needs to be filled by the incoming QBs in the Capital City.  If you are a BC Lions fan reading this; congratulations you have yourself an almost a touchdown a game passing machine.  For the rest of the CFL, we can start marking the dates on the Calendar when each opposing team faces an old former Quarterback, should be fun games to watch regardless who you happen to cheer for. 

Predictions for 2019

Reilly Passing Yards per game 365

Harris Passing Yards per game 348

Touchdown production will continue to rise for Reilly as he ages his ability to manage the red zone has increased.  Reilly should find himself with more time in the pocket to work on completion percentage in BC.

Someone tweet me in September and remind me to look at the statistical analysis of these two near Labour Day.  Is anyone willing to put out an over/under on production numbers on Harris vs. Reilly?  Tweet your numbers to me @projectsmith

Mike Smith is a founding partner of the BleedRedblacks podcast, and is a season ticket holder in Ottawa. He is particularly interested in statistical trends within the game and can be found on twitter.

Banner image from CFL.ca

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